The Department of States has posted the April 2023 Visa Bulletin. The Employment Base Fifth visa categories are as below:
Chart A
All set aside categories for all countries remain “CURRENT”
Unreserved category for China shows retrogression, priority date remains the same as last month at July 8th, 2015
Unreserved category for India shows retrogression, priority date remains the same as last month at June 1st, 2018
Chinese and Indian investors under the new EB-5 regulations should take advantage of the set aside visa categories to secure their priority date as soon as possible
Taking into account the number of people on the waiting list as shared by Mr. Charlie Oppenheim during the WR Immigration webinar, the Unreserved category for Vietnam is expected to have a priority date in the next few months
Chart B
Chart B remains the same as the February 2023 visa bulletin for all four EB-5 visa categories for all countries.
Predictions
Last week, USCIS announced starting from March 15th, 2023, the agency is officially removing biometrics submission requirement as part of the I-526E petition. In their announcement, USCIS also announced that since the form was released back in June 2022, they have received about 980 petitions filed. The agency did not release the specific data for each of the four EB-5 categories. Since the four visa categories are divided up differently, our team has made several predictions to provide some information to investors who are interested in EB-5 projects in the High Unemployment areas.
Source: USCIS
The total Employment Based visas available in FY2023 is approximately 197,000. The EB-5 program gets around 7.1% of this total, putting the quota at 13,987 visas. 10% of the EB-5 visa quota goes towards the High Unemployment set aside category, resulting in 1,399 visas.
According to FY2022 Annual Report, out of 19,987 EB-5 visas available in FY2022, 6,396 visas reserved for the three set aside categories remained unused. Under the current law, the unused numbers in each set aside category will roll over to the same category in the next year – meaning:
10% of 19,987 = 1,999 FY2022 unused 10% High Unemployment set aside
1,999 + 1,399 = 3,397 visas available for High Unemployment set aside in FY2023
*Disclaimer: The assumptions below were calculated using the available data and are based on several different assumptions. These predictions are for your information only and they may not accurately represent the actual number of visas will be used. For any case specific questions, please consult with your immigration attorney.
Please note: family members of the I-526E petitioners also count towards the number of visa usage. For example: 1 I-526E petition for a family of 2 people (including the main I-526E applicant) will be issued 2 visas.
Based on this number and the 980 I-526E petitions USCIS received, we can reasonably calculate several assumptions:
Assumption 1: 2 people per family
3,397 visas available / 2 people per family = 1,699 families can receive the visa
Assumption 2: 1.5 people per family
3,397 visas available / 1.5 people per family = 2,665 families can receive the visa
Conclusion
*Disclaimer: The assumptions above were calculated using the available data and are based on several different assumptions. These predictions are for your information only and they may not accurately represent the actual number of visas will be used. For any case specific questions, please consult with your immigration attorney.
Sources:
https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/alerts/uscis-removes-biometrics-requirement-for-form-i-526e-petitioners
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY%202023.pdf
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